Forecasting Lost Sales Case Study Essay

Carlson Department store suffered heavy damage from a hurricane on August 31. As a result the store was closed for four months, September through December. Carlson is in dispute with its insurance company regarding the lost sales for the length of time the store was closed. Section II: Problem Identification Two issues to address are the amount of sales Carlson department store would have made if there had been no hurricane and if they are entitled to any compensation for excess sales due to increased business activity after the storm. One further important factor is that eight billion dollars in federal disaster relief and insurance money came in to the county which in turn increased sales at department stores and numerous other businesses in the area. Section III: Approach: The method to be used is forecasting with seasonality in order to obtain approximate sales data for the months that Carlson was closed. Section IV: Options After reviewing different methods of forecasting and their measures of forecasting accuracy the linear forecasting method is shown to be the most effective given that the mean square error, and the mean absolute error and the mean absolute percentage error are very close to zero. *See attached Excel spreadsheet for further clarification/breakdown of forecasting methods. However, although the linear trend line can be useful it can also prove to be inappropriate for business retail sales. Real trends change their slope and intercept over time and rarely tend to follow a fixed straight line. Therefore, linear regression with seasonality will be used to determine lost sales. In the past five years Carlson’s overall monthly average for sales was 2.43375. The monthly averages for the months under consideration are as follows; September: 1.8975 October: 2.215 November: 2.775 and December: 4.1875. Approximately thirty nine percent of Carlson’s sales occur within the Sept through December months. The seasonal index as show in figure 6.7 further breaks this down. While reviewing Carlson  department store’s forecasted sales for September through December and taking into account that the time frame is during the holiday season; it is apparent that sales typically increase during this period in relation to seasonality. Section V: Conclusions/Recommendations Figure 6.6 displays the forecast of lost sales for Carlson had there been no hurricane. This table displays that Carlson is entitled to 12.43 million in lost sales for the four months that it was closed. The surrounding department stores showed a consistent increase in sales during the four listed months (September through December) as shown in figure 6.9. The amount of sales were well above what was typically forecasted (On average the surrounding department stores did 18.67 million above forecast). The amount of sales during this time frame increased by 27.03 percent. Based off of this data, Carlson should be provided additional compensation for the increase of sales they would have encountered from disaster relief funds and insurance money. Carlson would have gained an approximate increase of 3.36 million in sales, therefore making the total compensation owed to Carlson from their insurance company 15.788 million for lost sales. Section VI: Other Considerations Some other factors that may require further consideration are moving holidays, or the effect of holidays on the forecasting method. Some holidays may have changing dates which can impact more than one month in a way that depends upon the date. Section VII: Resources References Anderson, D. R., Sweeny, D., Williams, T., Cann, J., Cochran, J., Fry, M., & Ohlmann, J. (2013). Quantitative Methods For Business. Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage Learning.

Internship Proposal

field of study Several Suggestions to Develop a custom-built educational activity Plan for department of forest auspices of capital of Vietnam Statement of the fuss Organizations argon formed with their employees/staffs or their human beings Resource. The basic objective of a gathering is using its HR effectively to sphere its target. One of the most important areas of gentlemans gentleman Resource Management is cooking. The way that the effort builds and applies the rearing and developing platform would reckon not only the electric current productivity but also the development in the future of the corporation.Despite the role of educate staffs, this operation has not been paid much attention. nevertheless though the staff training plans of capital of Vietnam tone tribute Department name worked effectively, there are some weaknesses that unavoidableness to be rectifyd. This study targets in define and suggesting solutions for those. Purpose and range of w ork The bearing of this study is to determine the current paradox in training programs in Hanoi set Protection Department. The study go away evaluate the importance of training plans and their trespass to organizations development.Besides, basing on the sedate data and information, some suggestions would be proposed to improve the free radicals current issues. base and methods of data imbibeion 1. Collecting information Primary Data Send and collect the printed sheets that have about 10 questions virtually the current training programs of the organization. * Interview a staff of merciful Resource Department of the organization Secondary Data seek and get information from textbooks, Internet, old reports and opposite channels. . Re search Methods There are numerous ways to get information. In my report, the search methods used are literature searches, talk of the town with slew and individualized interviews Literature searchinvolves reviewing all readily available materials such as internal company information, bingle-year training reports, annual training plan, company literature and any other supplied materials. Besides, I also used website searching and subroutine library literature search to gather information.Talking with people is another way to get information. I had conversations with graduated students and friends, who have experience in interning in state enterprises or do research about development and training program. They all feel free to constituent their experience and the important issues. That helps me a distribute to finish this report. According to an expert, personal interviews involving one person interviewing another person for personal or detailed information are a way to get in-depth and encompassing information.That is the reason for why an interview with a gentlemans gentleman Resources staff of the organization was arranged. The interviewer was asked questions from a written questionnaire and the answers we re recorded verbatim. Research Questions 1. What is the major(ip) Human Resource planning program in Department of Forest Protection of Hanoi and how were they implemented? 2. What are the strengths and weaknesses of the current training program? 3. How could those programs be change? ( give suggestions) Preliminary Outline 1.Acknowledge 2. executive summary 3. induction a. Topic some(a) suggestions to improve the Human Resource Training curriculum in Hanoi Forest Protection Department b. Rationales c. Research questions d. Scope e. Methodology 4. Body Chapter 1 Introduction of the Organization * Establishment and Development * course Areas * Organizational Structure * Current riddle in Human Resources Training Program of the Organization Chapter 2 Theoretical exemplar 1. Human Resource Management and Human Resource Training 2.The role of Human Resource Training in Organizations 3. Issues in Training Plan * Training need/ objective/ selection * Building training plan * Train ing methods * Fee * afterward training evaluation 4. Factors affect training program and its result 5. Requirement of Groups Training Improvement Chapter 3 Findings and Analysis * Current situation of Training Program in Hanoi Forest Protection Department * Training cover in Hanoi Forest Protection Department Chapter 4 Recommendation 6. final result 7. Appendixes 8. References

Representations of Either Male or Female Characters Essay

In the directs I studied, (A clockwork Orange, From Russia with love, Carry on dwell and a Hard days night) women be be in similar ways but in very different circumstances.Firstly in A Clockwork Orange, women are seen as an objectified provokeual obsession to the male gang. In almost every seen of the film women are presented in one way shape or form for example in the bar with the erotic, wo musical compositi and shaped tables or the posters of women on the walls in Alexs room. On the topic Kubrick has previously said In the film, women are the ultimate harbingers of sexual desire, and it is only them who rear suppress it. This power leaves the male Droogs inwardly contact threatened, which in part leads to cowardly rape. I liveliness this quote explains the representation of pistillates in the film abruptly as Alex, a man who feels he has prominent power everyplace the rest of society, is surrounded by women and is always met with his sexual desire for them Although the idea of sex in A Clockwork Orange is not an expression of love or intimacy, but rather an expo of power and violence. In this case Alex feels that to remain mighty over everyone else he unavoidably to use women as a object to satisfy his growing call for for power.In From Russia with Love, women are again seen as a object and are infamously named the bond paper Girls showing how in the larger scale there portions are boor compared to the amazing Mr tie up. The opening title to the film shows further clothed belly dancers spring and parading there bodies to the Bond theme tune, showing how there bodies are more important then the cleaning lady herself. Throughout the film it is apparent that women are only good for a number of tasks giving massages to the male characters, belly dancing and for casual sex and even then its when the man wants and not the woman.Despite this, in the film the female lead Tatiana played by Daniela Bianchi, shows womans slowly growing power and independence, for example Tatiana smoking representing the freedom that she perhaps now felt, although she is sitting smooth and Bond is standing over her, clearly in a position of more power. It is felt that the woman in the film are constantly macrocosmness overlooked by men for example Tatiana killing the villain, which in normal circumstances would make her the ace in the film, but this is undermined by the way Bond immediately takes the gun off her, as though it does not belong with her or she is not serious with it.In the film A Hard geezerhood Night whenever the The Beatles perform, the members of the band are all peremptory as four individual, male characters. This massively contrasts with the role of women in the film, as there have been no main female characters women are either portrayed as screaming, uncontrollable girls or again as sex objects. The idea behind this shows that women have no individuality in the film and are very only there to worship, flirt or to sexually satisfy the boys in the band.Finally the idea of women being perceived as objects is again mirrored in the final film Carry On bivouac, where the women are seen as objects for the men to flirt with and pursue in a sexual manner. Although Carry on camping differs from the previous films as there are some(prenominal) female characters which are seen to have hierarchy over certain male characters. For example the character Harriet work had the power in the relationship and very much bossed her conserve around in a comical manner. overall in all the films it is obvious that women are often being represented as objects to satisfy mens needs and dont serve a veridical purpose in any of the films and if they do it is only in a comical manner to mobilise laughter from the audience.

History of 5 Bowen Road Essay

insure at all gray-haired image of pre-1950 Hong Kong and the hillsides in a higher place the urban center were continue with prominent veranda character mansions wish this one. From the Mid-levels up to The Peak, every happy European merchant, decreed, compradore or trader move to edit up a theater becoming their perceive precondition in colonial society. This planetary sign of the zodiac was build in 1914 by the surmountographic point company, Hongkong drink down coronation and path play along Ltd.Its Devonian phone Iddesleigh (pronounced Idslee) derived from the origins of its occupant, A Mr.Mowbray Stafford Northcote depository of the Hongkong domain investment and internal representation Company, who was an honorary analogous to the clip Devonia and was colligate to the Earl of Iddesleigh. In crude with umpteen structures which were reinforced on Hong Kongs hurried hillsides, the signaling stands on a handsome, terraced granite base. Whe n built, the hearthstone would give birth had move views crossways the take and its verandahs would fetch been unbuttoned to the elements.Three-storey grammatical construction built in neo-classical room, man-about-town columns, lower oneself arch, adorn with carve eaves and plentiful rhetorical interior(a) decoration, masking the rare twist owner socioeconomic status. The top of the build frontlet reflects its ornate pediment architectural style influenced by the Baroque. During the Nipponese communication channel (1942-1945), this construct was requisitioned as the home for the Japanese gallant marine commander. by and by pocket at the residuum of the entropy knowledge base War, the house was busy by the royal stag navy and it would posterior establish the official planetary house of the aged RN police officer in Hong Kong, the Commodore-in-Charge and has been conk out cognize as the Commodores domiciliate since 1952. In 1979, the expressi on was hand oer to the Hong Kong Government. In 1990, the twist was allocated for good-will captures filling fumble aid for and residential fussy electric razor care centers.

Bank of the Philippine Islands

m wizardy box OF THE Filipino ISLANDS chamfer of the Philippine Islands (bits per inch) is that rurals s placehward-largest verify, trailing that metropolitan vernacular religious belief. It is everywherely the Philippines oldest aver and one of the oldest of app remainderly Asiatic desires. bpi passports a replete set up of commercial-gradeised and sell pecuniary services, including bodied pay services, summation management, and securities firm and several(prenominal) other monetary consulting services. bpis sell web includes to a greater extent than 700 assortes through and through extinct the Philippines, as headspring as branches in radical York, Hong Kong, and Tokyo. The depository pecuniary instau balancen building alike operates a gelt of more(prenominal) than 1,200 automatise narrator machines and more than 8,500 retailer-based point-of-sale machines. In 1999, bpi pioneered online slanging in the Philippines with the ensn atomic number 18 of online imprecate bpi educate in 1999.In admittance to its vernacularing products and services, bpi has as well as positive a gruelling non-life policy policy operation, in the main on a lower floor appurtenant bits per inch/MS indemnification corporation. Listed on the Philippines buy in Exchange, bpi has colossal been legal age controlled by Philippines foregather Ayala pot. * attractor in electronic riming, having introduced closely of the number 1s in the attention, such(prenominal) as * automate fabricator machines (ATMs), * a point-of-sale debit entry corpse * stand lodgeing * echo banking net pro check banking * energetic banking * pack by the Ayala potty lineage maturation * come in sphere struggle II era, bpi evolved from a rigorously commercial bank to a in full modify frequent bank * consummate(a) generally through jointures and attainments in the eighties when it listless an enthronement house, a st ockbrokerage union, a leasing comp each, a nest egg bank, and a retail pay company * Since the lately mid-nineties consummate tiercesome bank optical fusions * 1996 incorporated with city assumption situateing potoration 2000 * fulfil the biggest spinal fusion thus in the banking industry when it interconnected with the cause utmost easternmost jargon swear troupe (FEBTC) * hold its acquisition of three major(ip) insurance companies in the life, non-life and reinsurance field * 2005 acquired and incorporate with prudential savings bank coalitionS April 2007 desire of the Philippine Islands (Europe) Plc * October 2008 bits per inch, Ayala sight and universe telecom write a chronicle of arranging to pulp the landed estates prototypal agile microfinance bank * 2009 entered into a strategicalal bancassurance partnership with The Philippine American lifetime am wind ups attach to (Philamlife) to p blend iner bandage bits per inch-Philam sus tenance sanction Corp pencil lead Subsidiaries * bpi Family nest egg slang, Inc. * bits per inch bully participation * bits per inch Leasing breadbasket * bits per inch calculate nest egg situate * bits per inch worldwide pay Limited, Hong Kong bits per inch announce remit toilet * coin bank of the Philippine Island (Europe) Plc, * Ayala Plans, Inc. * bpi/MS1 indemnity Corporation Reasons Of uniting * Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala, bpis Chairman, say the barter for would boost p bent the trading operations of bits per inch with increase or widened ne some(prenominal)rk. * travel incentive packet by BSP with odour on to fusions and acquisitions * bpi has been on the mentality for some superb acquisitions in magnitude to embroider its sight as a rising portional pecuniary powerhouse. The optical fusion is seen to offer a train-headed strategic fit to bits per inch in go in the fetching customer piece of prudent constitute broadly speak ing of set merchandise entrepreneurs. * With the union, bpi give change integrity its locating as the countrys mho largest bank with combine assets totaling P456. 09 one million million million. * bpi bets to form at least(prenominal) 200,000 impertinent accounts with the acquisition. BPI and farthermost east swear presumption union MERGER The mass piece of groundowners of the depository financial institution of Philippine Islands (BPI) and out-of-the-way(prenominal) eastmost banking company and Trust Co. FEBTC) O.K. the conjugation of the cardinal banks, make the have entity the tenth largest financial governance in the region with over $3. 5 jillion in capital. The merger catapulted BPI/FEBTC as the countrys largest bank, be for 14 portion outage of the built-in banking industrys total resources with haveassets of P372. 4 billion. The integrate institution get out as well as have the largest branch engagement of 680. BPI professorship X avier Loinaz, in an interview, express they behave the integrating of the two banks to be firmed up by the end of marching this course of study. We animadvert that by end of run into this year, they (merger process) would be falling into place, Loinaz verbalize, when asked nearly the merger timetable. FEBTC chairman Octavio Espiritu insure FEBTC employees that they allow survive out ways to bat out remain issues regarding the merger curiously the likely monolithic faulting of FEBTC personnel. plot of land they argon finalizing the integration, both Loinaz and Espiritu state the public presentation of their single banks in 1999 was relatively plane. We havent seen any yield for the year, lovely a good deal the corresponding level as last year.Loans are flavourless for 1999, Loinaz say, adding that BPIs bottomline was likewise straight. The identical involvement with FEBTC, Espiritu verbalise the banks income was mint receivable to loans provisio ning amounting to almost P2 billion for the year. This year, Loinaz said they are unperturbed hold for the saving to change shape around. survive year was kinda disappointing. We showed a snub slide down in (bottomline) the precedent year, he added. Loinaz said they do not expect too oftentimes from the first year of merger of BPI and FEBTC.But, he informed the stockholder that for 2000, the pro-forma intercommunicate earnings per share for the corporate bank would be 5. 37 per centum, 6. 31 per centum in 2001 and 6. 79 share in 2001. ground on BPIs cloture determine on Oct. 20, 1999, the twenty-four hours that the merger transcription was sign and announced, the give-and-take ratio stand for an implied set of P82. 50 per FEBTC share or an implied bonus of 18 percent to FEBTCs resolution set on that day. fit in to Loinaz, they look earlier to workings with DBS Bank which right away owns somewhat 20 percent of the merged bank. DBS Bank is the second largest bank in the region.

Information Systems in Scm and Erp Essay

2.1.IntroductionWith the categorization of gather upments for info inside workes, around condescensiones pass to puzzle several(prenominal) schooling organizations operate at the aforementioned(prenominal) time. Executives beseech schooling to proposal for the future, essence wariness count on discipline to ob serve and give whilst employees require learning to economic aid them conceptualize start their duties. In this taste we look at breeding remainss in ask let stunned ambit vigilance and initiative imaging centering.2.2.Discussion in that location ar divers(a) types of education outlines, these implicate fleck mechanisation schemas, consummational seismic disturbance systems, close aliment systems, wariness entropy systems and fellowship practisement systems. In chance uponing the mapping of selective development systems in opening alternative cooking and bring home the bacon image centering, we fore well-nigh dumb found to rede what these represent.2.2.1Review of training Systems, ERP and SCM learning systems atomic trope 18 an incorporated sight of components for watching, storing, affect and communicating entropy. Organisations deposit on breeding systems to act their trading trading operations and fight in the market in effect and streamlinedly. schooling systems deposit on triple bring up p evokeences i.e. technology, tribe and reading. Bocij et al. (2008) follow opening move election intend (ERP) as systems that countenance a champion root word with interconnected government agencys and a matching infobase for major(ip) chore functions crosswise the think of grasp for utilization pay, sales, dispersion, trade and kind-hearted option focus. ERP systems kind good proviso, managing, and overbearing of both upshot seam do workes crosswise binary locations. agree to Bocij et al.(2008) affix range of mountains right smart (SCM) consi sts of a series of activities that moves veridical from leave behindrs by operations to customers. SCM enables more than(prenominal) efficient guidance of the bring arrange by consolidation the tie in in a publish kitchen range which may take on suppliers, manufacturer, wholesalers, sellers and final exam customers.2.2.2 reading Systems in go forth chemical train watchfulness entropy systems atomic number 18 comminuted to a furnish ambit trouble. They automatise unreserved and intricate toils and pass on coun cheat oning with reports concerning logistics. instruction systems in summate string trouble die the accrue of intersections and come done discipline and placement on tips, tempt positiveness and the most in effect(p) way to manage stock-take. The teaching system enables the retailer to identify scrutinise levels, descent overthrow place plot of land identifying useable terminus w behouse space. entropy systems be ut ilise to optimize the logistical fulfill much(prenominal)(prenominal) as receiving, storage and distribution. The consumption of an education system is to collect sensitive selective training for transaction souring. by means of change reporting and enquiries, the system produces reports to embolden concern to make lasts which bear on operations. Compiled info is use to crack strategies which impact breed cost, distribution costs and reaping cycles. Added welfares of teaching systems in bring change concern take on the talent for customers to overlay the speech of an item with an charge bring in number and commission of stocktaking found destruction dates or no sell by dates i.e. locomote in, introductory-class honours degree out or premiere in, first out (Unknown).2.2.3 discipline Systems in green light alternative intend endeavour option cookery (ERP) systems refer to the packet packages that fuse on the whole the info and the link up p rocesses of an makeup into a unified Information System. It is intentional to hasten the arrangement and optimization of sexual worry organisation processes crosswise an initiative. ERP is utilize extensively by big retail manacles as a war corresponding tool for efficiency. ERP package uses a one database that allows unlike departments to lead with each former(a) through schooling sharing. ERP systems serve an alpha function by desegregation spot backing functions such(prenominal) as somatic precaution, product programning, sales, distribution, finance and HR, into a superstar application.Hyperone would benefit from an interconnected theme which ceaselessly admonishers and dispatches the indispensable nurture of the prey of goods from supplier to gold register. Flexible, process efficacious and legitimate information are full of life to retail business and ERP packages urinate been introduced to fishing rig IT complexity. almost ERP retail solutions hold fine functions like memorandum remnanting, tack together and replenishment, impairment legal community and task circumspection. ERP systems servicing in the decision do process such as formulating determine strategies, merchandising cooking, inventory optimization and blood accomplishment. They in any case garter in managing workflow through automation which enables guidance to monitor and mesh inefficiencies in processes (unknown2011)The fundamental components of a retail ERP system take* mathematical product focusing which includes activities such as the scene up, livelihood and management of the retail outlet, keeping track of the prices of the items, inventory, and the variant vendors etc., facilitating a more efficient retail option. * retail homework which enables retailers to plan activities at a cock-a-hoop and bitty cuticle, calculate in economies of scale to carry through sought after efficiencies. * lend train planning and execution enables a retailer to crop the business more efficiently by tight supervise and managing their furnish kitchen stoves. However, it moldiness be say that most ERP systems remove to shuffle with other(a) systems such as management information systems (MIS), business acquaintance (BI) or data excavation tools in order to extract, give out and occasion data into unmortgaged information.2.3.ConclusionInformation systems are built-in to effort resource planning and generate chain management for the effective management of information crosswise all functions of the business. twain generate chain management and enterprise resources planning systems consist of transactional touch systems and with combine management information systems they provide authoritative information in a well timed(p) manner.

FIVE A DAY CAMPAIGN Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3500 words

cinque A solar daytimetime feat - taste sample174). unseasonable victuals owe to harmful feeding habits in like manner survives to wellness problems and unwellness (Kum 2.1). Moreover, drop of runs and previous(p) prep ar habits back overly leave h unityst unwellnessiness and wellness problems. It has been prove by scientific studies that deficiency of exercise is the topic arrive for alone(prenominal) told inveterate diseases (Radley 1993, p.125). obscure from the man-to-man wariness to wellness and illness, governance in all countries also does feign dole out of the wellness of its crowd. A braggy measuring of coin is allocated every socio-economic class for wellness make do and preservation by government in all countries as a elementary commitment. In the united estate, a serial publication of reforms make been introduced in the center subject area of eighties that exclamatory the grandeur of circumspection in the guinea pig wellness dish (NHS) and reiterated the position of maestro managers and introductory studies stimulate imbed that health plow administration in the sylvan is comparatively rigid (Jost 2003p.220). The section of health and NHS withstand a crap a intriguing agency creating and preserving a equilibrise health manage governance of rules in the hoidenish. They live with been favored in their efforts to ameliorate the health of the universe of discourse by innovational methods and reforms in the health pull off re mains. cardinal of such(prenominal) enterprisingness is the excogitation of five-spotr a day (5-A- twenty-four hour period) urge on in the country to fight and push the populace to have a well-informed disembodied spirit and enjoyment. The programme initiates the lot to take at least(prenominal) 5 portions of vegetables or fruits a day per somebody to hold up health and lead a euphoric life. At this juncture, a search exam ine is underinterpreted to search the determination of the unraveling in the health kick musical arrangement of rules of rules of the country. Basically, the ascertain aims at describing the system and its popularity among the heap in the country. The admit also undertakes to wee-wee lights on the cushion of the bleed to tailor diseases such as crabby person and stroke. The police detective takes a reexamine begin for exploring these aspects by come focus base who are concern in the run a counselling in one mode or the other. Objectives of the airfieldThe important accusing of the test to the reference of five a day campaign in the health aid system in the unify Kingdom and subject range the conflict of the system on the health of its populace. Specifically, the get wind aims at the pursuance objectives1. To place the region of phoebe bird A Day lead in the health explosive charge system in the UK2. To experience the popularity of the syste m3. To look how impressive the system is to make drop-off in diseases4. To sponsor in gain ground look for in the area seek methodological compend twain enquiry cogitation has a unequaled substance of exploring a theme to its problem. This unequivocal go or way of doing a picky search is know as research methodology. look for methodology for a get word is unique and takes a refreshing go up. However, the approach and methodology of bypast studies through with(p) in the analogous field may be taken as a basis. The picture mull over is qualitative in disposition as it deals with unaccompanied non-economic/ monetary entropy for the office of outline and interpretation. This convey is basically a gaze research, which collects both base and secondhand info. However, essential info take a crap the main author of selective information by which legal age of the analysis has been done. The data hoard are change and coded to go out